Sunday, September 26, 2010

Week 3 Picks

A few surprises last week and a late Redskins loss in overtime cost me. This week, a hope for a better record. The good news is that I bumped up from 29th place in the BGO pick 'em to 20th. Ok, let's get to this week's picks.

1PM Games

Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants (-3.0)
I don't think the Giants are nearly as good as their drubbing of the Panthers, but I don't think they're as bad as they played against the Colts. The Titans struggled against the Steelers run D last week. I don't think they'll have as many problems this week. Johnson starts his 100+ run yard streak again this week.
Pick: Titans

Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers (+3.0)
Jimmy Clausen starts for a Panthers team that looks like they'll be in the top five of the 2011 draft. Bengals D will give him fits just like they did Joe Flacco last week.
Pick Bengals

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans (-3.0)
The Texans have their opportunity to be the dominant NFL team in Texas. The Texan fans will be out en mass (they hate the Cowboys almost as much as Redskin fans do). If the Cowboys go 0-3, not only will it look very unlikely that they'll be hosting the Super Bowl, but their chances of winning the NFC East will look much more difficult. Could this be their Alamo? I think so.
Pick: Texans

San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
I just don't think the 49ers fall to 0-3 here. Their D steps up and pulls off a win. But if KC won, it wouldn't surprise me much playing in Arrowhead.
Pick: 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.0)
Ugly game of the week. Charlie Batch and his walker  return to lead the Steelers. The Bucs have been playing smart, safe football and using their D to win. I like the Steelers D here better.
Pick: Steelers

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-14.0)
Not my suicide pick of the week (I've picked the team playing against the Bills the last two weeks) but could easily be a good suicide pick. I don't like the spread however.
Pick: Patriots

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-10.0)
Ravens are mad after a loss to the Bengals. Browns at home will be a good tonic for them.My lock of the week (aka suicide pick).
Pick: Ravens

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
The Lions are better than their 0-2 record. I like them and think that if Matt Stafford was playing, they would have won last week. I think the Vikings do enough with Favre and Peterson to pull off their first win at home. Again, another game that wouldn't surprise me if the Lions pulled the upset-- but I'm going with the safe pick on this one.
Pick: Vikings

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
There is a lot of talk of the Falcons pulling the upset this week. I don't see it,
Pick: Saints

4 PM Games

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams (+3.5)
Who are the Redskins? Are they a team that can't hold leads? Are they a team that plays down to their opponents? Or are they a team that wins the games they should? I think we find out that the 2010 Redskins win games that they should today. Final score 27-13.
Pick: Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
Michael Vick's era officially starts here since Kolb is healthy and could start this week. It's hard to read this game b/c it is supposed to rain and be a mess in Jacksonville which may slow Vick somewhat. That said, David Garrard was benched last week and there are many questions about the Jags that need to be answered. Did I mention I hate the Jags in pick 'em? No matter how I choose, they normally play the opposite. I barely like the Eagles here, so probably the Jags will win.
Pick: Eagles

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (+5.5)
The Broncos starting corners are likely out for this game. Even with Garcon out, Peyton Manning should have a field day.
Pick: Colts

Oakland Raiders @ Arizona Cardinals (-4.0)
I like Bruce Gradkowski as their QB and I think the Raiders D will give Derek Anderson fits. Probably a close game, but I like Oakland in an upset.
Pick: Raiders

San Diego Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks (+6.0)
Pick: Chargers

Sunday Night Football

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
I like the Dolphins defense to give the Jets fits tonight.
Pick: Dolphins

Monday Night Football

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+3.0)
I like the Packers here because I think they will give Jay Cutler problems. When Cutler has problems, he throws interceptions.
Pick: Packers

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 19-13

Ed Note: While I'm also 19-13 overall at BGO, my picks were slightly different due to mistakes on my part. Should be the same on both sites from now on.

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