Sunday, October 10, 2010

Week 5 Picks

For the past two weeks I've been .500 in my picks. 8-8 during week 3 and 7-7 during week 4. It's surprising last week because with exception to the Atlanta and NO games, I thought I had lost almost the rest of the games I picked. Maybe this week will be better, but I doubt it. 26th in the BGO pick 'em league with little chance of improving. The good news is that I'm still alive in my suicide pool. At least I get one game a week right.

1PM Games
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (+1.5)
This could be the best opportunity for the Bills this week. The Jags are coming off a huge win against the Colts in overtime and may overlook a weaker Bills team. That said, the Bills are really bad and may be getting the #1 pick in the 2011 draft.
Pick: Jaguars

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.0)
The Broncos are inconsistent, so it's hard to tell what team will show up. It's the best pass offense in the the NFL (the Broncos, really?) vs. the best pass defense in the NFL (ironic that the Ravens have the best pass D since almost everybody has their secondary as their weakest unit on the team). I like the D and the Home field in this one.
Pick: Ravens
SHD Pick: Ravens in blow out

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)
Don't let the line fool you, I think this will be a tight game. KC hasn't become 3-0 by beating bad teams and having fluke wins. That said, this is a desperate time for the Colts. They need this win at home and I think Manning will find a way to get them there.
Pick: Colts

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (+2.5)
I really didn't plan on picking the Redskins for the next two weeks but after the Philly game, this is a tough one. Do the Skins have an emotional letdown this week or do they rise up, win as a team and try to get closer to winning the NFCE? Same can be said about the Packers. The past two weeks, they've struggled with divisional opponents and penalties. The Packers have had some serious injuries on their defense and while the Skins have lost Portis for 4-6 weeks, they're getting Trent Williams back. I like the Skins here at home at 1PM (they've played better in the 1PM games over time than other games).
Pick: Skins 27-24
SHD Pick: Skins

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3.0)
Rams are 2-0 at home playing a better than record Lions. If this was in St. Louis, I'd pick the Rams. It's in Detroit. I like the Lions in a shootout to win their first of the year.
Pick: Lions

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (+3.0)
This was going to be my slam dunk suicide pick of the week. But then Cutler gets knocked out and the Panther's nearly cost me last week against the Saints. This is Julius Pepper's homecoming, so I guarantee he'll want to beat the Panthers. Expect Clausen to be sacked many times but I think this game will be a nail biter. Still going with the Bears though, just not my suicide pick.
Pick: Bears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals  (-6.5)
I like the Bucs here in an upset. The Bengals will make one turnover too many and it will cost them the game.
Pick: Bucs

Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns (+3.0)
I just think Atlanta has the better team and Cleveland will have a bit of a letdown after beating in state rival Cincinnati last week.
Pick: Falcons

NY Giants @ Houston Texans (-3.0)
Texans will put up some points on the Giants D. Matt Schaub gets rid of the ball much quicker than Jay Cutler.
Pick: Texans

4PM Games

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals (+7.0)
Might be a closer game than the spread suggests, but even a struggling Saints team beats a bad Cardinals team. Arizona has no QB.
Pick: Saints

Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
A week off and at home should be plenty of reason on why the Cowboys win this game. Also the Titans run game has been suspect.
Pick: Cowboys

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+6.0)
I like the Raiders in an upset. SD will underestimate them.
Pick: Raiders

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
The 49ers are hosting a banged up Eagles team that will have to depend on the inexperienced Kevin Kolb to win. This is a do or die game for Mike Singletary. Lose this game and go 0-5 and I think Singletary will be the first head coach to be fired in the 2010 season.
Pick: 49ers

Minnesota Vikings @ NY Jets (-4.0)
The Jets should be able to contain the run and Revis should be able to limit Moss. Add the stories of Favre/Childress and Favre's 'lil gunslinger (rumored) pics, I have to think there will be some issues with maintaining focus for this game.
Pick: Jets

Last week: 7-7
Season : 34-28

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