Thursday, March 17, 2011

Crunching Numbers: Redskins Trade Scenarios

The Redskins currently have 6-7 draft picks in the 2011 draft.
 (Ed. note: My understanding is that the Skins do have 7 picks: a 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th with a additional 5th from the Saints for Jammal Brown and a additional 7th coming from the Colts for Justin Tryon. I remember either Larry Michael or Matt Terl confirming that on Redskins Nation. That said, almost all draft outlets aren't including the 7th rounder from the Colts. So, I'm not really sure if the Skins are getting the 7th rounder after all.)

The problem is that the Skins have some major needs to address both with starters and with depth on the roster. With a CBA currently non-existent, the Skins can't address any needs via free agency. Nor can they sign any undrafted rookies at the conclusion of the draft. Also, because a CBA-less draft means that no players can be traded during the draft for picks and/or other players, Albert Haynesworth and Donovan McNabb offer no value to the Redskins as trade bait. So I ask you IIWII readers is taking one elite player at #10 worth it if there is a team that may be willing to move up?

Currently, the Skins lack a 3rd and a 4th round pick in the 2011 draft. These picks are valuable in finding a few quality starters and at worst some decent contributors or backup depth. Remember, the Skins have had some success in the past with these picks. Chris Cooley was a 3rd rounder in 2004. Mike Shanahan drafted Kory Lichtenstiger in the 4th round in 2008 while in Denver. So, if the Skins can find a way, maybe they should consider acquiring additional picks by shopping the 10th overall pick.

This post will look at who may be interested in making that trade with the Skins and what the Skins could get by trading back.

So who's interested?
Well, it depends on who's available at #10. Julio Jones has to be the prime target in my opinion. Yes, the Skins could use an elite WR prospect but at this point in Washington would the Skins be better to find multiple solid starters vs. 1 elite starter? I'm thinking the answer may be yes based on the many team needs the Skins have. I think it's fair to rule out QB. If Newton or Gabbert is still there at 10, the Skins may go that way. I also doubt that any team will trade up to #10 for an OL, DL, OLB, ILB, TE, RB, S, CB (assuming Peterson and Amukamara are gone) unless there's a specific player a team may try and take before rivals get him. There could be a move for Cameron Jordan as I think he could be a real special player at the NFL level as either a 3-4 or 4-3 DE.

Let's just play a bit of Devil's Advocate here and look at some teams that may want to move up.
 We'll go from 11-21 as it might be too costly for teams behind them to make a move.

#11 Houston Texans: I doubt it. They need personnel for their 3-4. They can get it without moving at all. Maybe an interest in Julio Jones but I think they'd rather take their chances on D. Doubtful.

#12. Minnesota Vikings: Unless a QB like Cam Newton is there, I doubt they want to trade down. The Vikings could use a DE but again why trade down? Only if they are going to let Sidney Rice leave would I see them make a play for Julio Jones. Doubtful.

#13. Detroit Lions: They could use a corner and if somehow Peterson or Amukamara are still there, they might try to jump Houston for the player. Outside of that their other needs (OL, OLB) should be there at #13. Maybe.

#14. St. Louis Rams: I can see the Rams wanting to move up to #10. They've been looking for an elite #1 WR to complement Danny Amendola and Donnie Avery and stretch the field and be able to stay on the field.
Going by the Draft Trade Chart, the Skins could score a 3rd round pick by moving back 4 spots.
Redskins #10 (1300) for Rams #14 (1,100) and #78 (200)
The Skins at #14 should still be able to address either DE or OLB with their pick. They could also try and trade back again. Possible.

#15. Miami Dolphins: I don't see a position that the Dolphins would be willing to move up to grab except for QB. They'd be better off staying at #15 or moving back and trying to snag Mike Pouncey. Doubtful.

#16 Jacksonville Jaguars:  Jags are one of the teams that values character over many other intangibles. If they're sold on Ryan Kerrigan maybe they make a move.
Redskins #10 (1300) for Jacksonville's #16 (1000), #80 (190)  and #113 (68) might be enough to make the trade. Maybe.

#17 New England Patriots: This could be a real opportunity for the Skins if the Pats want to move up. The Patriots have 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks. This may be the year the Pats decide to trade up for an elite talent. I personally love this scenario: Redskins #10 (1300) for NE's #17 (950), #60 (300) and #124 (48). By moving back 7 spots, the Skins gain a late 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick. Possible (I hope).

I don't see a trade from the teams picking between #18-#20, but keep an eye on the Chiefs at #21. While I doubt Scott Pioli is willing to give up most of his draft board for Julio Jones let's look at the possible scenario. More or less the Skins would get the Chiefs 2nd and 3rd round picks along with #21 for #10. It's a long shot but you never know when it comes to the draft........

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