Saturday, April 30, 2011

Trade and Trade again......Redskins Day 2 picks/draft moves

Heading into day 2 of the 2011 draft, the Redskins had 8 remaining draft picks (already used one on Ryan Kerrigan in round 1). By the end of day 2, the Redskins had drafted 2 players and are heading into day three with 10 picks. Surprised? You should be. This isn't your typical Redskins draft. Matter of fact this isn't anything like your classic Vinny Cerrato/Dan Snyder draft at all. The Redskins are going after some serious value and accumulating picks in the process. So far they've addressed three critical needs on the roster and with 10 picks throughout the next 4 rounds, expect them to address most of the positions that need starters and or depth.

So, how did they get to this point. Let me show you:

At #10 the Skins traded with Jacksonville for #16 (1st) and #49 (2nd)
At #16 Redskins drafted Ryan Kerrigan
At #41 Redskins drafted Jarvis Jenkins
At #49 Redskins traded with Indianapolis for #53 (2nd) and #152 (5th)
At #53 Redskins traded with Chicago for #62 (2nd) and #127 (4th)
At #62 Redskins traded with Miami for #79 (3rd), #146 (5th) and #217 (7th)
At #79 Redskins drafted Leonard Hankerson

So when the dust settles this is the Redskins draft board heading into day 3's draft.
#16 Ryan Kerrigan, OLB
#41 Jarvis Jenkins, DE/DT
#79 Leonard Hankerson, WR
#127 (4th)
#144 (5th)
#146 (5th)
#152 (5th)
#155 (5th)
#177 (6th)
#213 (7th)
#217 (7th)
#224 (7th)
#253 (7th)

So heading into the 2011 draft, the Skins had 8 picks now (barring more trades) they have 13. For a team with major needs across the board, netting an additional 5 picks is crucial. More importantly, the Skins filled voids in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Already it looks like the Skins will get a starter from their 3rd round selection as many considered Hankerson to be a late 1st/2nd round talent.

We know that the Skins netted additional players from the draft, but did they get value from moving down? I won't go into the players in the post, but lets look at the trades during the first two days and determine if the Skins gained value by making the moves. To determine this we go to the draft value chart. Now the chart isn't exact and is more of a guide in determining value. That said, most teams and almost all draftniks use it to determine who got the better end of a trade. Note: trade point value will be in parentheses next to the pick

#16 (1000) + #49 (410) - #10 (1300) = +110
#53 (370) + #152 (31.6) - #49 (410) = - 8.4
#62 (284) + #127 (45) - #53 (370) = -41
#79 (195) + #146 (33) + #217 (5.6) - #62 (284) = -50.4

In the end the Skins trade had positive value (10.2). That's a good sign even if you don't like the value chart. Unfortunately, the value chart has significant lack of value in day three picks of which the Skins have 10.

Overall, the Skins win so far as we head into day three. First, they have accumulated multiple picks which will allow them to address needs throughout the team. Thus, Mike Shanahan will finally have some of the talent he wants to run his team. Second, there seems to be overall value in the trades. The Redskins didn't lose value in order to acquire more picks. Third, by waiting the Skins haven't reached on players. One can argue that the Skins have three starters coming out of this draft through three rounds and possibly more after day three. Fourth, while cost isn't/shouldn't be an issue with the fans (nor is it usually an issue with Dan Snyder) by going this route, the Redskins save money by drafting rookies in later rounds rather than spending money on bigger named free agents. As we have seen throughout the years, free agents don't guarantee success or that they will be successful on their new team. At least if a later round rookie fails, the team didn't spend as much on him and will have a much less significant salary cap hit (when the salary cap returns.....and it will). This strategy wouldn't work for many teams because some just need an elite player or two to get them to the next level, but this is the exact thing the Redskins needed to rebuild the team. Two defensive starters in the front 7 have been drafted and the Skins addressed a dire need at WR.

So far, so good. Onto day 3..........

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