Monday, December 26, 2011

If the Season Ended Today...The Redskins Would Draft at #7

Looking at the Vikings/Redskins game in a draft perspective, the loss didn't do much for the Redskins while it did hurt the Vikings draft stock. Minnesota has been eliminated from the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes with their win. Even if they lose next week and both the Rams and the Colts win, it looks like the opponents strength of schedule is too high to win a tie breaker.

Here is this weeks top 10 (or 10 worst the way you look at it):

1. Colts (2-13)
2. Rams (2-13)
3. Vikings (3-12)
4. Jaguars (4-11)
5. Browns (4-11)
6. Buccaneers (4-11)
7. Redskins (5-10)
8. Dolphins (5-10)
9. Panthers (6-9)
10. Chiefs (6-9)

Also the Bills have a 6-9 record as well but based on estimated OPP% they would be 11th.

You'd think week 17 for 'Skins fans would be meaningless, but it's not. There are a bunch of games to follow when we are looking at the 'Skins draft status for 2012. Here is a list of games to keep an eye on:

WAS @ PHI- A Redskins loss would keep them no lower than 7th but could move them up to as high as 4th in draft order depending on who wins ahead of them (Jaguars, Brown, Buccaneers). A Redskins win could knock them as far as 10th or 11th in draft order, falling behind Miami (if the Dolphins would lose). Philly also currently in the teens with their current record.

CHI @ MIN- Not a significant game to Redskin fans, but if the Vikings win and the teams in the 4-6 slots all lose, there is a chance that the Vikings could far as fall as #6. Vikings could also move up to #2 if the Rams and Colts win and they lose.

SF @ StL- The Rams could win #1 overall if they lose and the Colts beat the Jaguars. What this means to the Redskins and anybody else looking for a QB if that the phone lines are open for a trade to move up and get Luck.

NYJ @ MIA- Miami is right behind the 'Skins in draft order. They need a QB. I'd like to see them win this week.

IND @ JAX- This is a draftnik's game of the week and probably the most unwatchable game on TV. If the Jaguars win and the Redskins lose, the Jaguars would likely fall to 7th and the Redskins would move up one spot (could be more if both the Browns and Buccaneers win as well). This scenario would have the Colts win the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes no matter what the Rams do. On the other hand, if the Colts win, the Jaguars could move up to #3 if Minnesota loses and with a Rams win the Colts would fall to #2 and the Rams would win "Suck for Luck".

PIT @ CLE- With a Browns win and a Redskins loss, the Redskins would move up one spot in draft order (more with wins by Jags and Bucs). The Browns could fall back as far as 10th based on who wins and loses this week with a win. I hope the Browns win this week, but I doubt it will happen.

TB @ AtL- There is a slight chance the Bucs could win this game because the Falcons are in the playoffs and the only thing to be determined is the 5th or 6th seed between them and the Lions. With a Bucs win and a Redskins loss, the Redskins will move up at least one spot in the draft; possibly more with losses from the Bucs and Browns. If Atlanta wins, this could slightly help the Redskins as their pick will fall further making it less valuable for the Browns if they try to move up and get either Luck or a RG3.

Other Draft Notes

- The decision of Matt Barkley will have significant ramifications on the 2012 draft. I will go into this in further detail in another post, but this hurts NFL teams that need a QB. It also helps NFL teams that are looking at other positions as the QB needy teams will trade up to get their QB while leaving more talented players at other positions available. It also helps the draft stock of other QBs like Tannehill, Foles, Cousins, etc. All of the QBs projected to be late 1st to 3rd rounders have a chance to go as high as the 1st depending on which underclassmen declare.

- I don't expect to hear word from Landry Jones (Oklahoma) or Robert Griffin III (Baylor) to announce whether they are staying or declaring for the draft until after they've played their bowl games. Baylor is set to play on December 29th against Washington in the Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma will be facing Iowa in the Insight Bowl on December 30th. Underclassmen eligible for the draft have until January 15th to declare that they are going pro. Even if they do declare, they have until January 18th to change their minds.

- Word is that it's a 50/50 bet on whether Griffin is entering the draft this year.

- No clue about Landry Jones, but my guess is that he'll stay for another year. He ended his 2011 season with some bad play and his draft stock appears to be at a low point. I would have Jones as my 4th best QB right now. He'd be the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the 2013 draft depending on if Griffin declares for 2012.

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