Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Delays......

Just wanted to pop in for a moment and let all of the IIWII readers know I'm still working on a Mock Draft that I thought would be done almost a week ago. It's taking me a bit longer than I thought it would. I also have little time to write recently for various reasons including "real job" schedule, some weird illness that I've picked up (allergy, stomach flu or sinus infection/cold I can't really tell, but I've felt lousy for the past week) and a few other reasons (example last night was that I was learning how to use my new phone- still haven't figured out much of it as of this posting).

Anyway, the mock will be done sooner than later. I still have a few more draft posts coming up as we get closer.

As for actual news, the Redskins are going to have a draft day party this year despite of the lockout. You can find more info. over at the Redskins Blog or over at CSNWashington.

The Post is reporting that the Skins will be bringing in a few other prospects in the next few weeks. At this moment, it's truly hard to tell if any of this is smokescreen, due diligence or actual interest. Mike Shanahan has always done a decent job in hiding his true intentions when it comes to the draft process.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

It's Official, Skins Have 8 Picks Heading Into 2011 Draft


On Friday the NFL awarded 32 compensatory picks to teams for the 2011 draft. How they figure out who gets what pick goes to whom and where in the draft is beyond me. According to some it's more complicated than using the equation to figure out the QB rating. From what I understand, not every free agent is eligible for this equation. Those who are eligible are calculated into the formula which is based player salary, playing time, post season honors. Add a little magic and (viola!) you get compensatory picks.
(Determining compensatory picks: What Harry Potter has been doing since The Deathly Hallows)
This year the league awarded 21 picks to various clubs through the equation. That said, the league gives out 32 picks in a draft, so the remaining picks (11) are handed out in the 7th round to the clubs with the worst records (highest draft order). Since the Skins pick 10th in the draft, they scored a 7th round compensatory pick with the Texans scoring the final compensatory pick and the last pick of the 2011 draft (aka: The Mr. Irrelevant pick).

Friday also had the NFL announce the current draft order including all trades and 32 compensatory picks. If you notice in the CBS article, the NFL has finally listed the Redskins getting the Colts 7th round pick as compensation for Justin Tryon.

So now the Redskins head into the draft with 8 selections: 10 (1st), 41 (2nd), 144 (5th), 155 (5th- from Saints), 177 (6th), 212 (7th), 224 (7th - from Colts) and 252 (7th- comp. pick). Now you may scoff at the notion that the Skins have three meager 7th round picks, but the Skins have been able to find some contributing talent with those picks in the past decade. For example: Rock Cartwright, Rob Jackson and Chris Horton were all 7th round selections. Also I expect last year's 7th round selections (Terrence Austin, Erik Cook and Selvish Capers) to play more of a role in 2011.

Want to see how many picks and where the other 31 teams are picking? ESPN has a nice list here worth checking out. Worth noting: Dallas and NY both have 8 picks, while the Eagles have 10 picks.

Correction
I mentioned in my last post that since there is no 2012 draft without a new CBA in place, it was my understanding that NFL teams could not trade future picks in a draft that may not exist much like current players can not be traded while there's no CBA. Come to find out I was misinformed. While listening to the NFL Draft Scout podcast, Chad Reuter mentioned that future picks can be traded (he specifically mentioned the Skins, since they love to trade away picks). The only problem is that since there may (I highly doubt it though) not be a CBA those picks would be void unless the teams involve have writing in the deal to make them go for future years. Either way, it looks like future picks can and will still be on the table for trades so Patriot fans can again get irritated when the Pats. keep moving back just to accumulate more picks that they never seem to use.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Redskins News and Notes: Redskins Shopping 10th Pick in Draft?

It's been a topic of discussion for awhile now with some Redskin fans. The Redskins could use more picks to address starting needs and overall depth. Now it seems that it has been confirmed that the Skins are talking to potential suitors for a trade of #10 overall in this year's draft. Michael Lombardi of NFL Network suggested this almost two weeks ago on Path to the Draft stating that the Skins do want to trade down and that the #10 pick could be had by another team even before the draft begins.

I was mentioning this on twitter and Mr. Lombardi pretty much re-stated that this wasn't just hyperbole to me.
"@IIWIISkinsBlog skins want to trade down..."
- Michael Lombardi (@michaellombardi)

So it's not just me throwing suggestions out there that the Skins might trade down. It looks like there is a good chance that they will make the move to acquire additional picks. The NFL Network is reporting that the Cowboys have already had calls for potential trade offers at #9, so I have to think that the Skins will get some offers at #10 unless teams are trying to jump the Skins for a player.

So now the question has to be "If they trade back, who do they take?" My guess is either BPA (Best Player Available) at the new spot or they go all in and go after a QB. At this time I see three potential QBs that the Redskins may target and possibly a fourth. Most of these players will be targeted as mid 1st rounders to 2nd rounders. Do some of them deserve to be in the 2nd round? Probably not, you could argue a few are later round prospects, but there is a demand for the QB position this year and normally QB stock inflates (with exceptions to last year QBs Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen) as we get closer to the draft.

So who are they?

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Crunching Numbers: Redskins Trade Scenarios


The Redskins currently have 6-7 draft picks in the 2011 draft.
 (Ed. note: My understanding is that the Skins do have 7 picks: a 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th with a additional 5th from the Saints for Jammal Brown and a additional 7th coming from the Colts for Justin Tryon. I remember either Larry Michael or Matt Terl confirming that on Redskins Nation. That said, almost all draft outlets aren't including the 7th rounder from the Colts. So, I'm not really sure if the Skins are getting the 7th rounder after all.)

The problem is that the Skins have some major needs to address both with starters and with depth on the roster. With a CBA currently non-existent, the Skins can't address any needs via free agency. Nor can they sign any undrafted rookies at the conclusion of the draft. Also, because a CBA-less draft means that no players can be traded during the draft for picks and/or other players, Albert Haynesworth and Donovan McNabb offer no value to the Redskins as trade bait. So I ask you IIWII readers is taking one elite player at #10 worth it if there is a team that may be willing to move up?

Currently, the Skins lack a 3rd and a 4th round pick in the 2011 draft. These picks are valuable in finding a few quality starters and at worst some decent contributors or backup depth. Remember, the Skins have had some success in the past with these picks. Chris Cooley was a 3rd rounder in 2004. Mike Shanahan drafted Kory Lichtenstiger in the 4th round in 2008 while in Denver. So, if the Skins can find a way, maybe they should consider acquiring additional picks by shopping the 10th overall pick.

This post will look at who may be interested in making that trade with the Skins and what the Skins could get by trading back.

Monday, March 14, 2011

3/14/11: Updates, Lockouts and The Future

Like our new header? Well it's staying that way until a new CBA is in place. I have a few headers that I use for the site based on what's going (offseason, regular season etc.) on and since we're in a lockout I figured I would represent my sentiment on the blog.
Lockouts suck
Unlike the NFL and the formerly known as the NFLPA trade association, I won't be stopping in my commentary on the Skins and the NFL while they complain to the media and twitter about each other. Actually, as a writer/blogger, this gives me the opportunity to focus solely on the draft and where I think the Skins (and the rest of the NFL) are headed. More time to get those Meaningless Mock Drafts done and more time to catch up on my 2010 evaluations of the Redskins from FedEx Field, to the team, to the coaching and front office (I still haven't had a chance to start them).

Plus, IIWII will look at some other stuff during the hiatus. It's been a while since I've done a movie review and there are a few I wouldn't mind writing up if only to give me a break from non-stop football coverage.

This is post #497 here on IIWII, in three more post we'll be at #500. I plan on thanking readers by offering up a prize pack to one lucky reader. Working on what I have planned to give up but it should be decent for a site that doesn't do ads.

There will be a lockout post coming soon as well. It will be more ranting than I typically put on the blog, but I'm really not happy about this situation. Both sides are to blame for the issue and I have a bigger problem with the leadership of both sides than an individual owner or player. Trust me as someone who has played football (granted only on the HS level) I understand the physical demand put on players and the life sacrifices that they make to play a game.

I'm also doing some site updates so expect a few changes in the coming months. We're going to try and put more pictures (larger and higher quality as well). People tend to like that. Also, we've changed our email and the Walking Deadman element of the site is going away. I've changed my handle if you didn't notice from Walking Deadman to FedEx Al and the domain name may change in the coming months as well (this will not affect you!!!!). Again, trying to be more fan friendly.Too many people thought this was a horror site. Nothing wrong with that, I love horror films. But we're not getting nearly enough hits to my liking (thanks to the dozen or so regular people who keep reading IIWII though).

If you have any suggestions, feel free to email me at the IIWII email, send me a tweet over at twitter or just leave a comment.

Finally, I wanted to congratulate SHD and his new wife Aurora on their marriage. May you two have a happy, healthy and long life together.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Redskins Draft Options: A Round By Round Analysis (1st round)

(With The 10th pick, The Washington Redskins select.....)
......I honestly don't know. Unlike the Vinny Cerrato years, it's hard to determine exactly where the Skins are going with their draft strategy. Mike Shanahan plays his cards close to his vest and when he does suggest something, you can't assume that is the Skins real target of interest. For example Shanahan has said that his top priority is a pass rushing OLB opposite of Brian Orakpo. He also mentioned that the 3-4 needs a top notch NT and a safety. The Redskins already addressed the safety issue by signing O.J. Atogwe to go along with LaRon Landry. Meanwhile the Skins have said little about addressing the needs of the offense, which they have many (QB, WR, OL are just a few). Its good news for the organization and the fans that we can't figure out what the Skins are doing. But as a draftnik and blogger, it makes it difficult to figure who the Skins are currently targeting.

What's not difficult to determine is what positions the Redskins could upgrade to improve the team. The biggest question really is where in the draft should the Redskins look for these players and whether the player that they need is or will be available. At this point, I think it's fair to say that the Redskins have serious needs at the following positions: QB, WR, OL, NT, DE, OLB and possibly CB (depending on whether the Skins re-sign Phillip Buchanon and/or Carlos Rogers). They also have depth questions at RB and ILB. It is unknown if a new CBA will be in place so we will be unable to determine whether the Skins will be able to address any of these needs prior to the draft (via free agency). What this series will do is take a look at where the Skins will be drafting in the 1st thru 5th rounds (because frankly rounds 6 and 7 are generally crap shoots in who the Skins will look at to draft) and see what players could fit a need and have the value to be drafted at that position. I'm going to leave a few players out of the mix in the 1st round like Von Miller because I just don't think he'll be there at #10. Same goes with Cam Newton (who I really don't want the Skins to draft anyway).

1st Round

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri- The #1 QB on many draft boards may not be the 1st QB taken in the 2011 draft. Despite his status, many aren't considering him the lock like Sam Bradford or Matt Stafford from previous years. Maybe it's the system or his team, but Gabbert has the ability to make the NFL throws and the speed and agility to fit what Shanahan is looking in a QB. Some think he'll fall to 10, I kind of doubt it. 




Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina- Many would consider that if Quinn wasn't suspended, he might be the undisputed #1 overall pick. Many think he could excel as a 3-4 OLB, which would make a nice bookend with Brian Orakpo. Quinn has amazing explosion and looks fluid enough to make the switch to OLB. Was a Cowboys fan growing up, but I can overlook that. If the off field issues (health and suspension) check out he could be drafted as high as #2 overall.







Julio Jones, WR, Alabama- Right now Jones is falling to the Redskins in many mock drafts. It could be a major score for the Skins (depending on who becomes the Redskins QB in 2011). Jones dominated at The Combine all while on a broken foot. He also played a portion of the 2010 with a broken hand. Admire the toughness, concerned about the multiple injuries. Jones looks like a serious playmaker. My biggest problem with him has nothing to do with him. The Redskins have a poor record with drafting WRs high in the draft and at #10 I want to make sure the Skins find a guy who can start for the next 10 years.







Cameron Jordan, DE, California- A dominating force that will probably excel either as a 4-3 DE or even as a 3-4 DE. This guy just wowed me at the Senior Bowl as he destroyed most of the top tier talent in drill during the week. A second generation NFL player, Jordan looks like a great option at DE along with Adam Carriker.





Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri- Very athletic with a great deal of explosion, Smith is a raw talent who could be an excellent fit on the other side of Orakpo.






J.J. Watt, DE/DT, Wisconsin- Mike Mayock says he's the best 5 technique player available in awhile. May be even better than Tyson Jackson. Could he be an ideal fit in the Skins 3-4?









....Next we look at some possible late 1st (assume the Skins trade back) and second round prospects for the Skins.

* None of the You Tube were videos made by me.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Meaningless Mock Draft 2011 Version 1.0

'Tis the season to bring back one of my favorite posts here at IIWII, The Meaningless Mock Draft. It's fun to write because whatever selection I make has no barring on what the Redskins or the other 31 NFL teams decide on April 28th. Plus if I'm wrong, who cares....it's meaningless!!!! If anything, you get a chance to see some possibilities you may not have thought about and/or roast me for leaving a player out of the mix.

I'm hoping to do 3-4 of these up through the draft. Version 1.0 will just feature the top 10 picks (heck if all the analysts at NFL Network only have to do the top 10 why can't I?) Version 2.0 will have all 32 picks. Version 3.0 will have both 1st and 2nd rounders plus a Redskins 7 round mock. Version 4.0 will be the final one hopefully done on the day of the draft.

Please leave comments I welcome them. Let's begin shall we?


Meaningless Mock Draft 1.0

1. Carolina Panthers: Da' Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

This is without a doubt a tough year to have the #1 overall pick. Frankly, it's hard to say that there is a definitive #1 overall pick since Andrew Luck decided to stay at Stanford. The Panthers have a lot of needs and it's doubtful that one player alone will fix the team's problems.

I can't see them taking either Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert here. Both are too risky especially when the Panthers only have 1 pick in the first two rounds.....they need to find a player that will be with them for years to come. While DT may be a slightly bigger need, I'm going with Bowers over Nick Fairley since a franchise pass rushing DE is almost as valuable as a franchise QB.

Alternate Picks:
Robert Quinn
Nick Fairley
Marcel Dareus

2. Denver Broncos: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

With John Fox in as the new head coach, the Broncos are heading back to a 4-3 defensive scheme. In order to succeed, they need a DT to help penetrate and collapse the pocket. Fairley reminds me of Albert Haynesworth.... take that as you will, but I think he'll be taken over Marcell Dareus because of his pass rush capabilities.

Alternate Picks:
Marcell Dareus
Patrick Peterson
AJ Green

3. Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, DE (3-4), Alabama

The Bills had the worst run defense in the league last year. In eight games, the team gave up over two hundred yards on the ground alone. They need to fix their defensive line to help this. Dareus would be a perfect fit as a five technique DE in Buffalo's scheme. Dareus is an excellent run stuffer and should be a problem in the pass game as well.

Alternate Picks:
Patrick Peterson
Cam Newton

4. Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Really if this was an ideal situation the Bengals should be debating on whether they take elite WR prospect AJ Green or elite corner prospect Patrick Peterson. Problem is that Carson Palmer doesn't want to be a Bengal anymore and I for one believe him. Newton is a classic Bengals prospect. Lots of potential and some serious red flags. This pick also makes sense as the Bengals will be looking for a new face of the franchise with the possibility of both T.O., Chad Ochocinco and Palmer leaving the team.

Alternate Picks:
AJ Green
Patrick Peterson

5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

Possibly the safest pick in the draft. The Cardinals go for a pass rusher to help their D look more like Pittsburgh's steel curtain.

Alternate Picks:
Blaine Gabbert
Patrick Peterson
Robert Quinn

6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Colt McCoy needs somebody to throw to and while he has some young WR talent on his team, the Browns lack a clear #1 caliber WR. Green easily fits that need.

Alternate Picks:
Robert Quinn
Julio Jones
Aldon Smith

7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
This pick is made amazingly quick. The 49ers need a corner and now have the opportunity to get the best one in the draft.

Alternate Picks:
Blaine Gabbert
Prince Amukamara


8. Tennessee Titans: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
The Vince Young era is over in Tennessee and he Titans with a new head coach will be looking for their next franchise QB. Without a doubt they need one. Kerry Collins is only a million years old in NFL years and Rusty (I'm Rusty!!!) Smith looks like he'll be a serviceable back up but I don't think he's one of the NFL's elite QBs. Gabbert should see some playing time by mid-season.

Alternate Picks:
Corey Liuget
Robert Quinn
Aldon Smith
Prince Amukamara

9. Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
The weakest link of the Cowboys could be their secondary. Dallas goes for the upgrade with a new corner.

Alternate Picks:
Tyron Smith
JJ Watt
Cameron Jordan
Anthony Castonzo


10. Washington Redskins: Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina
The Skins have said that their top priority is to add another pass rushing LB opposite of Brian Orakpo. While they have other needs (WR, G, C, RB, DE, NT, ILB and QB) most of those positions don't have a player worthy of #10 overall at this point. Julio Jones is an option, but has injury issues and with no QB to throw to him (yet?) it doesn't seem worth it. Quinn or Aldon Smith look like viable options and I think Smith could be a serious option. In this mock, I'm going with Quinn as many consider him to be at worst the 2nd best pass rusher in this draft class.

Alternate Picks:
Aldon Smith
Julio Jones
JJ Watt
Cameron Jordan

Expect Meaningless Mock 2.0 sometime towards the end of March.