Saturday, September 28, 2013

NFL Week 4 Points, Picks and Predictions

("Here's to alcohol. The cause of and solution to all life's problems" - Homer Simpson)
It's gotten real bad in Jacksonville. You see, NFL teams make major revenue off of stadium food and drinks. In my case, being a regular attendee of Redskins games, I know that the cheapest beer at FedEx is around $9.50 (and that's for standard domestic beers like Miller Lite, Coors lite etc.). That's why knowledgeable fans tailgate for four hours prior to the game and can drink (or share... yeah right) a six pack for the price of one stadium beer.

So here's my point, Jacksonville is so desperate for fans to attend games, they are giving away free beer. That's right, according to this CBS Tampa article, the Jaguars are offering two free beers to anyone who purchases a ticket of $45 or more for Sunday's game against the Colts. So basically, their cutting ticket prices in almost half but it requires a two drink minimum.

Could you imagine the Redskins or any other team in the NFL do this, ever? I really can't. It makes you think that barring some radical turnover in the next few years, we'll see our first London team come from the Jacksonville area (which I think is a terrible idea having a London NFL team for various reasons).

Speaking of London, this week we have our first London game of the NFL season. Horrible match up between the Vikings and Steelers. But I do find the idea of having a team called the Monarchs hilarious only if they use The Monarch from The Venture Bros.

(I have to admit I'm digging The Monarch helmet. Image via Deadspin)
Ok. Onto this week's picks. I'll eventually come up with a win/loss total for me and T.Scorpio, but if you are relying on us for picking winners, you're pretty much screwed anyway.

1PM Games (EST)

Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota/in London (+2.5)
FedEx Al: No real advantage here for the Vikings despite it being a "home" game. I still don't like Pittsburgh's offense. I think Peterson again will be the guy, but maybe I have a little too much faith in the league's best RB.
Pick: Vikings

Tattooed Scorpio: In the battle of the 0-3 teams overseas normally I'd pick Pittsburgh to right the ship but with the Vikings making a much needed quarterback change it should bolster their one dimensional offense and the Steelers defense has looked old and ineffective.
Pick: Vikings

Baltimore @ Buffalo (+3.5)
FedEx Al: If Buffalo was healthy and Ray Rice was out, then I wouldn't like the Ravens odds on the road. That said, Rice might play this week and EJ Manuel is up against a still stout Raven's defense. I don't like this game as a bettor, but going with the Ravens.
Pick: Ravens

Tattooed Scorpio:  Baltimore looked good last week beating Houston convincingly and have a good track record against mobile QBs --- that's what they face with the rookie E.J Manuel. I would pick them normally. Unfortunately, Ray Rice is a game time decision and Buffalo's offense is kind of rolling right now. I don't see the Ravens being able to keep up offensively without Rice and that will tire out that defense.
Pick: Bills(w/o Rice); Ravens (with Rice)

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (+4.0)
FedEx Al: I just think the Bengals are the better team and Brian Hoyer's good run will end sooner than later.
Pick: Bengals

Tattooed Scorpio: The Battle of Ohio sees the Bengals coming off a great come from behind victory against the Packers and the Browns are in love with their rookie QB Brian Hoyer as the Browns went into Minnesota and handled the Vikings. I'm thinking the Bengals may have gotten the spark it needed to get its momentum going in this young season. This is a intriguing match up. Which teams will show up???
Pick: Bengals

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+8.0)
FedEx Al:  This is the week where apparently very few home teams are favored. Weird trend. Of course, when the Jaguars are playing at home the opponent will always be favored this season. At least there's free beer.
Pick: Colts
Tattooed Scorpio:  After the Colts went into San Francisco  and man handled the 49ers you would think I'd go withe the Colts in this game but this is going to be my UPSET PICK!!!!! of the week (Ed. Note: If this happens it will be the upset pick of the century!). Jacksonville always plays them tough and the Jaguars can't go 0-16 ....or can they? I just have a feeling something crazy might happen.
Pick: Jaguars

Seattle @ Houston (+2.5)
FedEx Al: Seattle is on fire right now and while Houston would like to come back from the drubbing by the Ravens, I think reality is setting in that they may not be as good as people thought they were.
Pick: Seahawks
Tattooed Scorpio: Houston got embarrassed last week and with Seattle coming to town as the so called "Best team in football" they will have their hands full. I think the difference maker in this game will be J.J Watt. If he can get push up the middle, disrupt Russell Wilson's timing and bat some balls down he can help give the team a boost with hid stellar play.
Pick: Texans

Arizona @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)
FedEx Al: The first home game where the home team is favored makes little to no sense to me. The Bucs are starting a rookie with an injured Vincent Jackson and facing a Arizona team that plays the run well. I get the unknown of Mike Glennon compared to a poor Josh Freeman but I don't like this game for the Bucs at all.
Pick: Cardinals

Tattooed Scorpio: With things getting to worse in Tampa Bay between Josh Freeman and the organization and the rookie Mike Glennon getting the start I'm gonna go out on a limb and pick the Bucs. The team will probably feel energized with the change and that should give them the edge over the not so good Arizona Cardinals.
Pick: Buccaneers

Chicago @ Detroit (-3.0)
FedEx Al: I'm not sold on Detroit.  The Redskins' woeful defense shut the Lions down in many third down situations and with the exceptions of not making tackles and giving up a few big plays, the Lions wouldn't have scored nearly as much. Honestly, the Redskins should have beaten the Lions last week if not for killing themselves with costly turnovers, drops and penalties. The Bears are a much better team than the 'Skins and they'll show why.
Pick: Bears
Tattooed Scorpio:  Jay Cutler and the Bears look legit as they're 3-0 and their defense is carrying this team. The offensive line is protecting Cutler and letting him get the ball to his weapons on offense. Detroit will get a boost with the possible return of Reggie Bush to help make their offense more potent. Chicago's defense should be able to contain Detroit and get a few turnovers from Matt Stafford.
Pick: Bears

NY Giants @ Kansas City (-4.0)
FedEx Al: If this was MetLife Stadium, I think the Giants have a good chance because they are so desperate. The reality is that the game is at Arrowhead and the Chiefs have had extra time to prepare. Looks like Andy Reid may go 3-0 against his former division.
Pick: Chiefs

Tattooed Scorpio: With the turnover prone 0-3 Giants going to the surprisingly 3-0 Chiefs, I don't see the Giants getting their first win this weekend. Kansas City defense will have plenty of opportunity to bolster their already impressive numbers this season and not to mention they've had 10 days to prepare for them. Andy Reid should be 3-0 against the NFC East.
Pick: Chiefs
4PM Games (EST)
NY Jets @ Tennessee  (-3.5)
FedEx Al: I'm still a bit surprised that either of these teams have winning records, but what do I know? I really don't like this match up. Neither QB is consistent, so it looks like it may come down to the run game. I'm going to go with the Jets beating up a bad Titans run defense this week.
Pick: Jets

Tattooed Scorpio: The Jets are a surprising 2-1 going to a stingy and hungry Titans team coming off a solid win against the Chargers last week. The Titans defense should be able to contain the rookie Geno Smith and the pedestrian offense and I think Chris Johnson will have a BIG game.
Pick: Titans

Dallas @ San Diego (+2.0)
FedEx Al: This could be a high scoring shootout between the 'Boys and the Chargers. As a 'Skins fan, I'll be curious to see how Dallas' Tampa -2 handles an elite TE in Antonio Gates. Still think Dallas will win though.
Pick: Cowboys

Tattooed Scorpio: This is my head scratcher of the week. Can Dallas only run against St. Louis or can they carry the ground game across the county to San Diego? Will San Diego return to form from the first two weeks of the season or look like the unimpressive team we saw last week? I think Phillip Rivers picks apart the Dallas secondary.
Pick: Chargers

Washington @ Oakland (+3.5)
FedEx Al: If the Redskins are ever going to get it together, this is the week. Terrelle Pryor looks like he'll play, but Oakland is missing some key secondary help and will have a piecemeal offensive line. If the Redskins stop making stupid mistakes they can win this one.
Pick: Redskins, 31-26
Tattooed Scorpio:  With the uncertainty at who's the starting quarterback is going to be for Oakland with Terrelle Pryor recovering from a concussion and the steadily improving Redskins this is another intriguing match up. RGIII is looking like the 2012 OROY and the defense is figuring itself out and with better tackling and less penalties the team should go into the bye with a victory.
Pick: Redskins

Philadelphia @ Denver (-10.5)
FedEx Al: In Denver, Philadelphia will not be able to keep up with Peyton Manning. I expect the Eagles to get very winded in this game.
Pick: Broncos
Tattooed Scorpio:  In this game we may see 200 plays with these fast paced no huddle offenses. Only thing that may stop that from happening is the thin air in Denver. Peyton Manning looks like a super human robot on the field adjusting to everything he's seeing the defense try to do and finding the perfect play to beat that defense. I believe Chip Kelly's offense has been figured out.
Pick: Broncos
 Sunday Night Football

New England @ Atlanta  (-2.0)
FedEx Al: Still not sure if we'll see The Gronk this week but Brady is starting to develop chemistry with his young WRs. This could be Brady's fantasy breakout game of 2013 (I hope so, he's my QB in my fantasy league).
Pick: Patriots

Tattooed Scorpio: With the Falcons hurting big time and New England getting Gronkowski and possibly Danny Amendola  back I see the Patriots doing what they do....winning.
Pick: Patriots
Monday Night Football
Miami @ New Orleans (-6.5)
FedEx Al: The Saints are my suicide pick of the week, so you see where I'm going. The Saints have been very hard to beat in the confines of the Superdome. It won't get any better this week for the Dolphins.
Pick: Saints
Tattooed Scorpio: Battle of the undefeated teams, one that's a surprise and one that's not that big of a surprise. Ryan Tannehill is looking very impressive at the start of this season and the Dolphins defense has been playing pretty well. New Orleans at home is a tough task but New Orleans at home on a Monday night..... I don't see Miami being able to overcome the potent offense of the Saints.
Pick: Saints

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