Sunday, October 6, 2013

NFL Week 5 Points, Picks and Predictions

(One way to enjoy the Bye week, watch Tom Coughlin yell at someone Photo: via)
It's the BYE week for us here in DC, so of course (although as usual) I'm running late with this week's picks. Many Redskin fans won't care about this weekend since it's "Dallas Week" come Monday, but this is a good time to sit back, enjoy a fine beverage of your choosing and watch the rest of the NFC East get decimated.

With exception of the Cowboys (beat the crappy Rams) and the Redskins (beating an equally bad Raiders team), the NFCE has not won a single game outside of the division. So far the NFCE is only 4-12 overall and it's not going to get much better today. I don't see the Broncos losing to the Cowboys and the Eagles face the Giants today. So the NFCE will probably wind up 5-14 by the time Football Night in America starts.

So here's my football related things through the BYE:
In my fantasy league I'm 1-3, I had a horrible draft and have looked like the Redskins in 2 of my 4 weeks.
In better news, I'm still undefeated in my 2 suicide pools. I've generally been knocked out by this time in previous years (here's a hint: never pick your favorite team in a suicide pool).
I'm still a solid 5-0 on TNF predictions (granted, I haven't published the last two but they were right).

I still need to put out mine and Tattooed Scorpio's record for Sunday games. It'll be up sometime today. Part of me doesn't want to know, I'm guessing mine hasn't been that great.

Onto this week's picks.

1 PM Games (EST)

Kansas City @ Tennessee (+2.5)
Tattooed Scorpio: Is this the battle of the overachievers or the real deal? Both of these teams have surprising records and playing well. Tennessee lost Jake Locker to a hip injury and Ryan Fitzpatrick has starters experience but less mobility. Kansas City are undefeated under the Coach Andy Reid and looking poised to give Denver run in the AFC West. Alex Smith is managing the game effectively and D/ST is holding their own and contributing.
Pick: Chiefs

FedEx Al: It comes down to the Chiefs' defense in all of this. Kansas City has weapons to put up 40 points per game, but Alex Smith isn't good enough (arm strength/coverage reading/mobility) to do so. So what does he do? Game manage. Let Charles and Bowe and others occasionally make the big play and help your defense by not getting into bad situations. The defense does the rest with a good stop or turnover. Credit Andy Reid for playing to his talent level and Smith for not trying to do too much.
Pick: Chiefs

Baltimore @ Miami (-3.0)
Tattooed Scorpio: Miami has been surprising even after losing to the Saints on MNF and Baltimore losing to the Buffalo Bills without the services on Ray Rice are trying to bounce back. Joe Flacco has his worst performance of his pro career and I don't see the Dolphins secondary making it any easier on him Sunday.
Pick: Dolphins

FedEx Al: Man, I made so much fun of the Dolphins during the Hall of Fame Game on Twitter. But the reality of it all was that the Dolphins didn't give a crap about a meaningless game while the Cowboys were trying to show how Super Bowl bound they were. I really don't like the Ravens in this match up. This could be a repeat performance of last week for them.
Pick: Dolphins

Jacksonville @ St. Louis (-11.0)
Tattooed Scorpio: Jacksonville may be destined to go 0-16 with the lack of talent and lack of spending by their billionaire owner. St.Louis should end their losing streak and get healthy on the lowly Jaguars. Nothing much else to say on this game.
Pick: Rams

FedEx Al: Is this Trent Richardson trade 2.0? The Jags trade probably their best offensive player away and they win this week right? No, they don't. Although to be fair, this game stinks of a trap game- I have no faith in St. Louis' offense and their D has been up and down. That said, I think the Rams win here but I would avoid putting money or a suicide pick on this one.
Pick: Rams

New England @ Cincinnati (+1.0)
Tattooed Scorpio:  With Cincinnati losing the Battle of Ohio last week and Tom Brady looking like the Brady of old with no name weapons and having a actual running game. Looks like there is no Gronk and Amendola is questionable but I'm still going with Tom and The Hoodie.
Pick: Patriots

FedEx Al: Should be a good fantasy day for Brady and his WRs. Cincy's secondary is banged up. I expect a close game but a win for New England.
Pick: Patriots

Seattle @ Indianapolis (+3.0)
Tattooed Scorpio: Last week Matt Schaub gifted a win for the Seahawks on the road and the Colts are looking good at 3-1 especially with the addition of Trent Richardson. This is gonna be my Upset pick of the week since Seattle isn't a srtong team on the road and Andrew Luck is playing very well and wont make a Schaub-like mistake.
Pick: Colts

FedEx Al: I'm going with the Seahawks primarily because they just can't seem to be stopped at the moment.
Pick: Seahawks

Detroit @ Green Bay (-7.0)
Tattooed Scorpio:  Last week the Lions looked great against Chicago and now hold the division lead. Green Bay is gonna need the home field advantage and hopefully a healthy Clay Matthews to help slow the potent Lions offense. Green Bay has a 21 home game winning streak against Detroit but not sure which Packers team is gonna show up. This is my Toss Up Pick of the Week.
Pick: Packers

FedEx Al: A BYE for the Packers and playing at home doesn't bode well for Detroit.
Pick: Packers

New Orleans @ Chicago (+1.0)
Tattooed Scorpio: New Orleans looking unbeatable with their play calling genius back Sean Payton and the defensive mind of Rob Ryan has transformed the defense. Chicago looked horrible offensively and defensively against the Lions last week and I don.t see it getting any better this week with Drew Brees coming to town.
Pick: Saints

FedEx Al: The Saints are a dominant dome team. But they struggle with the run and I expect the Bears to put up a solid effort against Drew Brees. I'm going with Da Bears at home to right the ship.
Pick: Bears

Philadelphia  @ NY Giants (-1.5)
Tattooed Scorpio:  Honestly I have no idea what's going on with the Giants and can't explain it. Philly's offensive run was over faster than I personally thought but in the crazy NFC East who knows what might might happen. I guess I'll give New York the advantage because of home field.
Pick: Giants

FedEx Al: Not sure why this spread is leaning towards NY. They know something we don't? I know the Giants are desperate but so is Philly. This is a tough game to call, but I really can't see a Coughlin Giants team going 0-5.
Pick: Giants

4PM Games (EST)

Carolina @ Arizona(+2.0)
Tattooed Scorpio: Arizona was also gifted a win last week by a rookie QB in Tampa Bay and Patrick Peterson making two INT's in the final 3 mins of the game. Cam Is looking somewhat of his rookie form and Carson Palmer is giving a so-so performance so far in the desert. Honestly it's gonna come down to the defenses and the Panthers are still hurting a little and Arizona has Peterson to match up with Cam's favorite weapon Steve Smith.
Pick: Cardinals

FedEx Al: This game depends on if the Cardinals can stop Newton and whether Carson Palmer can throw TDs instead of INTs. I think the Panthers have a slightly better team because of their D, but this is another 50/50 type of game.
Pick: Panthers

Denver @ Dallas (+7.0)
Tattooed Scorpio:  Last Week Peyton Manning was out of the game by the middle of the 3rd quarter after throwing another 4 TDs. Dallas is benching last years 1st round pick Morris Claiborne for the likes of journeyman Orlando Scandrick. I think Peyton will be relaxing on the bench by half time.
Pick: Broncos

FedEx Al: Dallas has neither the firepower or the ability to not make key mistakes to match Denver. This could get ugly really fast if Romo makes an early error.
Pick: Broncos

Sunday Night Football

Houston @ San Francisco (-6.0)
Tattooed Scorpio: Both teams coming in at 2-2 and coming off disappointing losses and are not where they thought they would be at in the standings. The 49er's coming of the bye week had a extra week to prepare for the Texans and Matt Schaub's confidence may be shaken after throwing 3 pick 6's in three straight games.
Picks: 49ers

FedEx Al: 49ers at home is a hard team to beat. Texans tend to make too many mistakes.
Pick: 49ers

San Diego @ Oakland (+5.0)
Tattooed Scorpio: Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates are looking like they've got their magic touch back. Oakland will be getting their young QB back Terrelle Pryor and look to shake up the AFC West with a win in the division. I think San Diego has too many weapons.
Pick: Chargers

FedEx Al: Oakland is a much better team with Pryor back in the lineup. But the Chargers have been on fire as of late. This is a tricky game since I never like AFCW divisional games, but I think the Chargers will pull this one out.
Pick: Chargers

Monday Night Football

NY Jets @ Atlanta (-9.5)
Tattooed Scorpio:  This game is a get right game for the Falcons, with a turnover prone rookie QB and a potent yet under achieving offense its almost a MUST WIN with them being 1-3. The Jets have the 2nd ranked defense in the league and will look to keep pace with the division leader.
Pick: Falcons

FedEx Al:  The Jets are dealing with the growing pains of a rookie QB. I have Atlanta winning a low scoring game.
Pick: Falcons

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