Monday, March 9, 2015

What Should Be The Price For #5 (Eagles Trade)?


(How much is Mariota truly worth to the Eagles? Source: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
There's been a lot of talk by Redskins fans and the local media about an article written by coffee aficionado and MMQB writer Peter King which suggests that the Eagles will target QB Marcus Mariota (one of Chip Kelly's most successful quarterbacks from his Oregon coaching days) in the 2015 draft and would swap 1st round picks with the Redskins in order to make that move.

King suggests that if the Eagles give the Redskins their 1st and 2nd round picks in 2015 along with their 1st and 4th round picks that the trade would easily be made. However, is that really enough compensation to the Redskins for possibly giving the Eagles their franchise quarterback for the next 10 or more years?

Today, I'm going to look at the math of this potential trades and what the Redskins should be looking for if this move is possible. If you're interested, I did the math of the RGIII trade evaluating the value of the trade each year (2012 version is here) to get a feel and explanation of what I'm doing.

As usual, I analyze these trades using the standard Trade Value Chart, which is used by many/most of the GMs in the league to determine value for picks.

Trading With The Eagles

You have to understand a few things before I can even start breaking down this type of trade. This trade is going to be a bit tricky to determine value and compensation for multiple reasons. The first reason is because of what type of player is being traded. This isn't a move up to get a top tier WR,  (a move the Falcons made in 2011 to get Julio Jones) it's for a quarterback. If Mariota somehow falls to five, there will be some teams looking to get him (who exactly is still an unknown at this point) so, you'd likely expect to see a higher price tag to make this trade possible.

Second, is that the Redskins would be making a trade with a NFC East rival. A trade that could give the Eagles superiority in the division for at least a decade with a franchise quarterback in a quarterback driven league. The Redskins would need to expect significant compensation if they are willing to give the Eagles this type of opportunity.

The Math

The Redskins #5 overall pick is worth 1,700 points according to the TVC

The Eagles #20 overall pick is worth 850 points according to the TVC.

In order for the trade to happen the Eagles would have to give up enough picks to at least equal the 1,700 point value for the #5 spot. Ideally, you want to use this equation to determine each side's value in a trade and to have the end result as close to zero as possible (zero resulting in an equal value trade for both sides).

Here's the typical equation you'd use to value a trade:

Draft Pick(s) received (total TVC points) - Draft Pick(s) Given (total TVC Points) = x (0, + or -  TVC pts)

Peter King's Scenario:

Eagles trade #20 overall - 1st round - (850 points),  #52 overall - 2nd round - (380 points), 2016 1st round* (approximately valued 380 points), 2016 4th round* (approximately 32.2 points)
* Future picks are devalued one round for each year teams have to wait before they can use them.

Total value given = 1642.2 points; End value = + 57.8 points

This is a great trade....... for the Eagles. Despite the Redskins getting three additional players out of this move, the value is not there to make the trade with a divisional rival. A perfect example of trading within the division is with the Donovan McNabb trade in 2010. There is no way the Eagles would have gotten nearly what they did had they traded him to a team outside of the division. The Redskins should expect no less if the Eagles want to trade with them for Mariota.

Chris Cooley Scenario:
Former Redskin/ESPN 980 host Chris Cooley tweeted out this question yesterday to the fans:






















I wouldn't. My reasoning again is that the Redskins aren't getting compensated enough to do the deal. At this point, it's clear that Chip Kelly would rather go in another direction than to start Nick Foles. Maybe the "Mariota to Philly" story is just a smokescreen or a fan/media made rumor, but it sure did seem that Kelly would have rather stuck with Mark Sanchez than Foles in 2014.

So why do the Eagles a favor and take a guy Kelly doesn't want off his hands?

Also, I just don't see a tremendous value in Foles. I don't think he's an ideal fit for Jay Gruden's scheme and I think if the Eagles tried to trade him, they'd only get a 3rd round pick (maybe a 2nd at best) for him on the open market.

My Scenario:
So if I was Scot McCloughan, what would I want from the Eagles to make this trade go down? After doing some number crunching I think this would provide pretty fair compensation that slightly favors the Redskins but is understandable based on the situation.

Eagles trade #20 overall (850 points), #52 overall (380 points), #116 overall - 4th round - (62 points), 2016 1st round pick (approximately 380 points) and a conditional 2016 3rd round pick (62 points).

That totals 1734 points.

I would make the 3rd become a 2nd if Mariota wins RotY, makes the Pro Bowl or if the Eagles win a playoff game.

That would change the overall total to 1842 but, if Mariota is that good, giving up a 2nd in 2016 instead of a 3rd shouldn't be a big deal for Philly. If this deal goes down, the Redskins should get at least 2-3 immediate starters and a total for five good players. Chip Kelly gets his guy and we can find out if a nearly all Oregon team can win at the NFL level as Eagles.

Those are my thoughts on the potential trade. What's yours? Let me know in the comments below and thanks for reading.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

No. Find an AFC team that we won't have to play for a few years and trad with them.

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